XAVIER
MUSKETEERSXAV
12-11 | Road
82
ST. JOHN'S
RED STORMSJU
18-5 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
MUSKETEERS
100%
RED STORM
0%
MUSKETEERS
--
RED STORM
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (St. John's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)
XAV By 1-7 points
10.7%
XAV By 8-14 points
3.3%
SJU By 1-7 points
23.0%
SJU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Xavier
61
XAVIER
St. John's
71
ST. JOHN'S
Simulated Score
Xavier
77
XAVIER
St. John's
82
ST. JOHN'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Storm
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Storm
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Storm (+16.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Red Storm (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u159.5
Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
XAV @ SJU
82 - 87
Jan 24, 2026
SJU @ XAV
88 - 83
Jan 22, 2025
XAV @ SJU
71 - 79
Jan 7, 2025
SJU @ XAV
82 - 72
Jan 31, 2024
SJU @ XAV
77 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+24.2% more
St. John's: 36.0
vs
Xavier: 29.0
Assists (L5)
+17.2% more
St. John's: 15.2
vs
Xavier: 13.0
Steals (L5)
+11.7% more
St. John's: 7.3
vs
Xavier: 6.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
St. John's: 46.4%
vs
Xavier: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
XAV Score
61.0
82
SJU Score
71.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 35.9
23.0 / 29.0
Assists
15.2 / 13.0
17.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.7
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 43.7
42.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 75.8
68.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
36.0 / 29.0
48.0 / 40.0
Steals
7.3 / 6.5
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 12.4
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
XAV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
SJU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
XAV
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
SJU
Advantage
22-13-1
(62.9%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJU
XAV
SJU
XAV
ML
62%
18-11
58%
19-14
62%
18-11
72%
23-9
ATS
66%
19-10
73%
24-9
62%
18-11
72%
23-9
TTL
59%
17-12
39%
13-20
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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