Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Pelicans SAC @ NO

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

12-42  |  Road

94
FINAL
Mon, Feb 9 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

14-40  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
KINGS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

46.0%

Pelicans Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

SAC By 1-7 points

26.2%

SAC By 8-14 points

16.9%

NO By 1-7 points

24.3%

NO By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
113
SACRAMENTO
112
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
112
SACRAMENTO
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 3, 2026 NO @ SAC 113 - 117
Mar 5, 2026 NO @ SAC 133 - 123
Feb 9, 2026 SAC @ NO 94 - 120
Feb 13, 2025 SAC @ NO 133 - 140
Feb 12, 2025 SAC @ NO 119 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.6% more
Sacramento: 14.0 vs New Orleans: 11.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
New Orleans: 40.5% vs Sacramento: 35.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 113.0 94
NO Score 112.0 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.5 / 35.2 41.0 / 13.0
Assists 27.3 / 25.6 30.0 / 19.0
Blocks 5.1 / 5.0 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 46.9 54.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 80.8 63.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 40.5 / 42.6 39.0 / 50.0
Steals 7.6 / 7.8 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 14.0 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
NO Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
SAC
NO
SAC
ML
62% 98-61
55% 55-45
58% 48-35
61% 50-32
ATS
68% 107-51-1
54% 52-45-3
58% 48-35
61% 50-32
TTL
75% 119-40
58% 57-42-1
100% 83-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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