DETROIT
PISTONSDET
38-13 | Road
110
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
25-28 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
HORNETS
0%
PISTONS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
DET By 1-7 points
8.0%
DET By 8-14 points
2.2%
CHA By 1-7 points
20.1%
CHA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
103
DETROIT
Charlotte
115
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Detroit
103
DETROIT
Charlotte
108
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u221.5
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Sim
u221.5
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
DET @ CHA
118 - 100
Feb 9, 2026
DET @ CHA
110 - 104
Dec 20, 2025
CHA @ DET
86 - 112
Feb 9, 2025
CHA @ DET
102 - 112
Jan 3, 2025
CHA @ DET
94 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+37.5% more
Charlotte: 17.1
vs
Detroit: 12.5
Rebounding (L5)
+11.2% more
Charlotte: 49.5
vs
Detroit: 44.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.8%
Charlotte: 91.3%
vs
Detroit: 82.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Charlotte: 39.8%
vs
Detroit: 36.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
103.0
110
CHA Score
115.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 36.4
40.0 / 20.0
Assists
25.9 / 27.9
22.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.0 / 5.0
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 49.8
41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
91.3 / 82.5
100.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
49.5 / 44.5
39.0 / 41.0
Steals
6.9 / 11.0
4.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
17.1 / 12.5
21.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
DET
CHA
DET
ML
61%
60-39
55%
64-53
48%
40-44
49%
47-49
ATS
60%
59-40
53%
60-54-3
48%
40-44
49%
47-49
TTL
58%
57-42
60%
70-46-1
100%
84-0
100%
96-0
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