UTAH
JAZZUTAH
16-37 | Road
115
MIAMI
HEATMIA
28-26 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
HEAT
0%
JAZZ
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
UTAH By 1-7 points
9.3%
UTAH By 8-14 points
2.7%
MIA By 1-7 points
21.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
115
UTAH
Miami
126
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Utah
108
UTAH
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-6)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o236.5
Loss
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
UTAH @ MIA
115 - 111
Jan 24, 2026
MIA @ UTAH
147 - 116
Jan 9, 2025
MIA @ UTAH
97 - 92
Jan 4, 2025
UTAH @ MIA
136 - 100
Mar 2, 2024
UTAH @ MIA
120 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+21.4% more
Miami: 12.0
vs
Utah: 9.9
Rebounding (L5)
+10.5% more
Miami: 52.3
vs
Utah: 47.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.8%
Miami: 80.9%
vs
Utah: 75.1%
Blocks (L5)
+20.0% more
Utah: 4.2
vs
Miami: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
115.0
115
MIA Score
126.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 35.4
33.0 / 28.0
Assists
29.9 / 27.9
24.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.4 / 4.2
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 48.1
42.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
80.9 / 75.1
68.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
52.3 / 47.4
43.0 / 58.0
Steals
12.0 / 9.9
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 17.3
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
UTAH
MIA
UTAH
ML
48%
46-50
60%
96-63
59%
48-34
48%
40-43
ATS
51%
49-47
68%
108-51
59%
48-34
48%
40-43
TTL
59%
57-39
75%
119-39-1
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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