Home / NBA Projections NBA / Cavaliers @ Nuggets CLE @ DEN

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

32-21  |  Road

119
FINAL
Mon, Feb 9 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

34-19  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
CAVALIERS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Cleveland)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

84.1%

Nuggets Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-7 points

23.0%

CLE By 8-14 points

27.2%

DEN By 1-7 points

10.7%

DEN By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
129
CLEVELAND
119
DENVER
Simulated Score
110
CLEVELAND
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers (-2) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o240.5 Loss
Proj Total: 248.0
D
Sim u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 9, 2026 CLE @ DEN 119 - 117
Jan 2, 2026 DEN @ CLE 108 - 113
Dec 27, 2024 CLE @ DEN 149 - 135
Dec 5, 2024 DEN @ CLE 114 - 126
Mar 31, 2024 CLE @ DEN 101 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.4% more
Cleveland: 12.1 vs Denver: 7.3
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
Cleveland: 77.4% vs Denver: 75.7%
Blocks (L5) +38.4% more
Denver: 5.8 vs Cleveland: 4.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Denver: 40.1% vs Cleveland: 36.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 129.0 119
DEN Score 119.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.1 / 36.7 32.0 / 33.0
Assists 29.7 / 31.5 25.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.8 / 4.2 1.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 50.3 / 51.4 45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 77.4 80.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 41.5 46.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.3 / 12.1 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 13.0 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
CLE
DEN
CLE
ML
54% 57-48
60% 69-46
55% 47-39
56% 55-44
ATS
63% 65-38-2
67% 75-37-3
55% 47-39
56% 55-44
TTL
54% 56-48-1
59% 68-47
100% 86-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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