Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Jaguars ALST @ SOU

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

7-16  |  Road

68
FINAL
Mon, Feb 9 • 9:00 PM ET
F.G. Clark Activity Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

10-13  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
HORNETS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Southern)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 JaguarsSOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

46.0%

Jaguars Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SOU)

ALST By 1-7 points

24.3%

ALST By 8-14 points

13.7%

SOU By 1-7 points

26.2%

SOU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
84
ALABAMA STATE
85
SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
71
ALABAMA STATE
78
SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 SOU @ ALST 71 - 64
Feb 9, 2026 ALST @ SOU 68 - 69
Mar 6, 2025 ALST @ SOU 66 - 65
Feb 10, 2025 SOU @ ALST 81 - 82
Mar 7, 2024 SOU @ ALST 65 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +61.2% more
Southern: 17.9 vs Alabama State: 11.1
Blocks (L5) +25.1% more
Southern: 5.2 vs Alabama State: 4.2
Field Goal % (L5) +8.6%
Southern: 46.1% vs Alabama State: 37.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +8.4%
Southern: 72.1% vs Alabama State: 63.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 84.0 68
SOU Score 85.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 29.7 26.0 / 41.0
Assists 17.9 / 11.1 11.0 / 9.0
Blocks 5.2 / 4.2 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 37.5 39.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 63.7 76.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 36.8 34.0 / 43.0
Steals 7.4 / 8.5 13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 13.9 9.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
SOU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SOU
ALST
SOU
ALST
ML
67% 22-11
65% 20-11
70% 21-9
76% 19-6
ATS
64% 21-12
65% 20-11
70% 21-9
76% 19-6
TTL
42% 14-19
52% 16-15
100% 30-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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