UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
13-11 | Road
92
NICHOLLS
COLONELSNICH
10-14 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
VAQUEROS
100%
COLONELS
0%
VAQUEROS
--
COLONELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
107.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NICHOLLS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Nicholls)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NICH -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NICH)
RGV By 1-7 points
18.6%
RGV By 8-14 points
8.0%
NICH By 1-7 points
27.2%
NICH By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
51
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Nicholls
56
NICHOLLS
Simulated Score
UT Rio Grande Valley
70
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Nicholls
75
NICHOLLS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Colonels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colonels
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Colonels (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Colonels (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 107.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
NICH @ RGV
68 - 86
Feb 9, 2026
RGV @ NICH
92 - 72
Dec 31, 2025
NICH @ RGV
71 - 69
Feb 22, 2025
RGV @ NICH
84 - 93
Jan 27, 2025
NICH @ RGV
82 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.5% more
Nicholls: 9.1
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 7.1
Assists (L5)
+44.5% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 19.1
vs
Nicholls: 10.6
Blocks (L5)
+30.1% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 4.3
vs
Nicholls: 3.0
Rebounding (L5)
+20.0% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 36.9
vs
Nicholls: 29.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RGV Score
51.0
92
NICH Score
56.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.2 / 39.2
29.0 / 43.0
Assists
10.6 / 19.1
12.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.3
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 48.2
44.0 / 63.0
Free Throw %
68.2 / 85.5
55.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
29.5 / 36.9
19.0 / 38.0
Steals
9.1 / 7.1
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 12.2
9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RGV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
NICH
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RGV
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
NICH
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NICH
RGV
NICH
RGV
ML
53%
17-15
53%
16-14
68%
19-9
54%
15-13
ATS
47%
15-17
53%
16-14
68%
19-9
54%
15-13
TTL
56%
18-14
60%
18-12
100%
28-0
100%
28-0
