NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
6-18 | Road
70
LAMAR
CARDINALSLAM
12-12 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
DEMONS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
LAMAR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Lamar)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAM -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAM)
NWST By 1-7 points
1.7%
NWST By 8-14 points
0.3%
LAM By 1-7 points
8.0%
LAM By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
74
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Lamar
94
LAMAR
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
71
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Lamar
78
LAMAR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
NWST @ LAM
70 - 68
Dec 29, 2025
LAM @ NWST
76 - 61
Feb 17, 2025
LAM @ NWST
75 - 65
Jan 27, 2025
NWST @ LAM
59 - 69
Mar 2, 2024
LAM @ NWST
82 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+39.2% more
Lamar: 16.6
vs
Northwestern State: 11.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.3%
Lamar: 38.3%
vs
Northwestern State: 28.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Lamar: 45.4%
vs
Northwestern State: 39.5%
Steals (L5)
+36.7% more
Northwestern State: 6.3
vs
Lamar: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
74.0
70
LAM Score
94.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 28.9
38.0 / 39.0
Assists
16.6 / 11.9
13.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.4 / 4.0
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 39.5
41.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 72.0
73.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
37.5 / 36.8
40.0 / 32.0
Steals
4.0 / 6.3
3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 11.9
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
LAM
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
LAM
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
LAM
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAM
NWST
LAM
NWST
ML
55%
16-13
68%
21-10
59%
17-12
77%
23-7
ATS
52%
15-14
68%
21-10
60%
18-12
77%
23-7
TTL
72%
21-8
39%
12-19
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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