ALCORN STATE
BRAVESALCN
4-18 | Road
74
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
DELTA DEVILSMVSU
1-22 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
0%
DELTA DEVILS
100%
BRAVES
--
DELTA DEVILS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-43.0
ALCORN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +43.0 points (Alcorn State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALCN -43.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALCN)
ALCN By 1-7 points
0.0%
ALCN By 8-14 points
0.2%
MVSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
MVSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Alcorn State
97
ALCORN STATE
Mississippi Valley State
54
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Simulated Score
Alcorn State
60
ALCORN STATE
Mississippi Valley State
68
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Delta Devils
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -43.0
D
Sim
Delta Devils (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
MVSU @ ALCN
64 - 67
Feb 9, 2026
ALCN @ MVSU
74 - 66
Mar 6, 2025
ALCN @ MVSU
72 - 64
Feb 10, 2025
MVSU @ ALCN
39 - 86
Mar 7, 2024
MVSU @ ALCN
67 - 74
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.2%
Alcorn State: 38.1%
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 29.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.1%
Alcorn State: 75.3%
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 68.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Alcorn State: 44.8%
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 43.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+11.3% more
Mississippi Valley State: 12.5
vs
Alcorn State: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALCN Score
97.0
74
MVSU Score
54.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 38.1
29.0 / 42.0
Assists
12.5 / 12.4
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.2 / 2.3
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 44.8
48.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
68.2 / 75.3
52.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
29.9 / 27.3
36.0 / 23.0
Steals
7.6 / 8.1
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 11.2
11.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALCN
Advantage
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
MVSU
3-30-0
(9.1%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALCN
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
MVSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MVSU
ALCN
MVSU
ALCN
ML
91%
30-3
66%
21-11
75%
18-6
75%
18-6
ATS
82%
27-6
68%
21-10-1
75%
18-6
75%
18-6
TTL
58%
19-14
47%
15-17
100%
24-0
100%
24-0
