NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
15-9 | Road
89
MURRAY STATE
RACERSMUR
18-7 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
RACERS
0%
PANTHERS
--
RACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Murray State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)
UNI By 1-7 points
6.8%
UNI By 8-14 points
1.7%
MUR By 1-7 points
18.6%
MUR By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Iowa
75
NORTHERN IOWA
Murray State
88
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
Northern Iowa
68
NORTHERN IOWA
Murray State
72
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Racers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Racers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Racers (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Racers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
UNI @ MUR
89 - 60
Jan 24, 2026
MUR @ UNI
76 - 81
Feb 17, 2025
UNI @ MUR
74 - 67
Jan 8, 2025
MUR @ UNI
71 - 68
Feb 3, 2024
MUR @ UNI
71 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.7% more
Murray State: 3.0
vs
Northern Iowa: 1.9
Turnovers (L5)
+27.4% more
Murray State: 13.3
vs
Northern Iowa: 10.5
Steals (L5)
+12.9% more
Murray State: 5.7
vs
Northern Iowa: 5.0
Rebounding (L5)
+12.9% more
Murray State: 36.1
vs
Northern Iowa: 32.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNI Score
75.0
89
MUR Score
88.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 28.9
20.0 / 41.0
Assists
11.5 / 13.7
6.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.0 / 1.9
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.9 / 45.9
39.0 / 61.0
Free Throw %
78.5 / 68.8
70.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 32.0
25.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.7 / 5.0
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 10.5
9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNI
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
MUR
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNI
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
MUR
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
UNI
MUR
UNI
ML
58%
19-14
51%
18-17
61%
20-13
56%
19-15
ATS
52%
17-16
49%
17-18
61%
20-13
56%
19-15
TTL
70%
23-10
69%
24-11
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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