ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
16-8 | Road
80
EVANSVILLE
PURPLE ACESEVAN
5-19 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
0%
PURPLE ACES
100%
REDBIRDS
--
PURPLE ACES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
EVANSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EVAN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EVAN)
ILST By 1-7 points
27.4%
ILST By 8-14 points
21.6%
EVAN By 1-7 points
20.1%
EVAN By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois State
74
ILLINOIS STATE
Evansville
70
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
Illinois State
78
ILLINOIS STATE
Evansville
65
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Redbirds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Redbirds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Purple Aces (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Redbirds (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
ILST @ EVAN
80 - 88
Jan 1, 2026
EVAN @ ILST
47 - 73
Mar 2, 2025
EVAN @ ILST
53 - 62
Jan 8, 2025
ILST @ EVAN
51 - 69
Mar 7, 2024
EVAN @ ILST
59 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+25.7% more
Illinois State: 2.9
vs
Evansville: 2.2
Rebounding (L5)
+23.2% more
Illinois State: 37.4
vs
Evansville: 28.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Illinois State: 43.8%
vs
Evansville: 41.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Illinois State: 36.0%
vs
Evansville: 34.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILST Score
74.0
80
EVAN Score
70.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 36.0
67.0 / 41.0
Assists
12.6 / 13.4
15.0 / 21.0
Blocks
2.2 / 2.9
8.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
41.8 / 43.8
57.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 64.6
84.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
28.7 / 37.4
28.0 / 27.0
Steals
5.6 / 5.6
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 11.5
7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
EVAN
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
EVAN
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
ILST
EVAN
ILST
ML
56%
18-14
42%
15-21
62%
20-12
71%
24-10
ATS
66%
21-11
58%
21-15
62%
20-12
71%
24-10
TTL
62%
20-12
58%
21-15
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
