VALPARAISO
BEACONSVAL
12-12 | Road
81
DRAKE
BULLDOGSDRKE
12-13 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
0%
BULLDOGS
100%
BEACONS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Valparaiso)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VAL -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)
VAL By 1-7 points
1.4%
VAL By 8-14 points
5.8%
DRKE By 1-7 points
0.1%
DRKE By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Valparaiso
108
VALPARAISO
Drake
79
DRAKE
Simulated Score
Valparaiso
63
VALPARAISO
Drake
77
DRAKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Beacons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Beacons (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
DRKE @ VAL
71 - 74
Feb 9, 2026
VAL @ DRKE
81 - 76
Jan 22, 2025
VAL @ DRKE
71 - 81
Dec 5, 2024
DRKE @ VAL
66 - 60
Jan 31, 2024
VAL @ DRKE
70 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+44.5% more
Valparaiso: 7.4
vs
Drake: 4.1
Blocks (L5)
+29.6% more
Valparaiso: 3.6
vs
Drake: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+14.1% more
Valparaiso: 11.6
vs
Drake: 9.9
Assists (L5)
+50.1% more
Drake: 15.1
vs
Valparaiso: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VAL Score
108.0
81
DRKE Score
79.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 31.5
26.0 / 41.0
Assists
15.1 / 10.1
8.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.6
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 43.4
43.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
72.6 / 66.5
64.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 38.0
34.0 / 42.0
Steals
4.1 / 7.4
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 11.6
6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
DRKE
14-20-0
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
DRKE
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: -0.9
DRKE
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DRKE
VAL
DRKE
VAL
ML
59%
20-14
48%
16-17
38%
13-21
61%
20-13
ATS
85%
29-5
52%
17-16
38%
13-21
61%
20-13
TTL
56%
19-15
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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