NC STATE
WOLFPACKNCSU
18-6 | Road
77
LOUISVILLE
CARDINALSLOU
17-6 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
0%
CARDINALS
100%
WOLFPACK
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (NC State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NCSU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)
NCSU By 1-7 points
3.3%
NCSU By 8-14 points
10.7%
LOU By 1-7 points
0.5%
LOU By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
NC State
80
NC STATE
Louisville
55
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
NC State
72
NC STATE
Louisville
78
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wolfpack
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wolfpack (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u161.5
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
NCSU @ LOU
77 - 118
Feb 12, 2025
LOU @ NCSU
91 - 66
Mar 12, 2024
LOU @ NCSU
85 - 94
Jan 13, 2024
NCSU @ LOU
89 - 83
Dec 22, 2022
LOU @ NCSU
64 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+32.5% more
NC State: 8.3
vs
Louisville: 5.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.7%
NC State: 43.0%
vs
Louisville: 33.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
NC State: 49.5%
vs
Louisville: 47.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+25.8% more
Louisville: 11.5
vs
NC State: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score
80.0
77
LOU Score
55.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 43.0
60.0 / 18.0
Assists
18.0 / 16.7
21.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.9
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 49.5
60.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
74.3 / 72.0
81.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
36.5 / 32.9
42.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.6 / 8.3
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 9.1
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
LOU
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
16-17-1
(48.5%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
LOU
Advantage
17-18-0
(48.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
NCSU
LOU
NCSU
ML
63%
22-13
59%
20-14
71%
24-10
55%
18-15
ATS
71%
25-10
71%
24-10
71%
24-10
55%
18-15
TTL
63%
22-13
71%
24-10
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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