Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Jayhawks ARIZ @ KU

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

23-0  |  Road

78
FINAL
Mon, Feb 9 • 9:00 PM ET
Allen Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

KANSAS

JAYHAWKSKU

18-5  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
JAYHAWKS
100%
WILDCATS --
JAYHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Arizona)
WildcatsARIZ (-3.5) 0 JayhawksKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

99.9%

Jayhawks Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

ARIZ By 1-7 points

1.1%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

4.8%

KU By 1-7 points

0.1%

KU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
87
ARIZONA
57
KANSAS
Simulated Score
70
ARIZONA
75
KANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jayhawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Jayhawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 KU @ ARIZ 61 - 84
Feb 9, 2026 ARIZ @ KU 78 - 82
Mar 13, 2025 KU @ ARIZ 77 - 88
Mar 8, 2025 ARIZ @ KU 76 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +47.3% more
Arizona: 8.2 vs Kansas: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +22.4% more
Arizona: 47.5 vs Kansas: 36.9
Turnovers (L5) +8.6% more
Arizona: 11.3 vs Kansas: 10.4
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Arizona: 51.5% vs Kansas: 49.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 87.0 78
KU Score 57.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 27.5 33.0 / 40.0
Assists 15.5 / 16.5 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 6.5 / 5.0 8.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 51.5 41.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 71.0 84.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 47.5 41.0 / 45.0
Steals 4.3 / 8.2 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 11.3 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
KU
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
KU
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
ARIZ
KU
ARIZ
ML
57% 20-15
67% 26-13
68% 21-10
68% 23-11
ATS
49% 17-18
74% 29-10
68% 21-10
68% 23-11
TTL
60% 21-14
56% 22-17
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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