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MIAMI

HEATMIA

27-26  |  Road

132
FINAL
Sun, Feb 8 • 2:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

14-37  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
WIZARDS
0%
HEAT --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

46.0%

Wizards Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

MIA By 1-7 points

24.3%

MIA By 8-14 points

13.7%

WSH By 1-7 points

26.2%

WSH By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
119
MIAMI
120
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
115
MIAMI
110
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wizards Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wizards (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Heat (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o237.5 Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 MIA @ WSH 140 - 117
Apr 4, 2026 WSH @ MIA 136 - 152
Mar 10, 2026 WSH @ MIA 129 - 150
Feb 8, 2026 MIA @ WSH 132 - 101
Apr 13, 2025 WSH @ MIA 119 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +100.7% more
Washington: 6.1 vs Miami: 3.0
Turnovers (L5) +21.9% more
Washington: 15.8 vs Miami: 13.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
Washington: 37.9% vs Miami: 31.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Washington: 47.3% vs Miami: 44.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 119.0 132
WSH Score 120.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 31.4 33.0 / 45.0
Assists 23.7 / 27.8 23.0 / 34.0
Blocks 6.1 / 3.0 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 44.4 42.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 75.8 / 77.8 69.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 48.5 42.0 / 60.0
Steals 8.0 / 9.0 7.0 / 18.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 13.0 19.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
70% 112-49
48% 46-50
47% 39-44
59% 48-34
ATS
69% 111-49-1
51% 49-47
47% 39-44
59% 48-34
TTL
74% 119-41-1
59% 57-39
100% 83-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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