INDIANA
PACERSIND
13-39 | Road
104
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
31-22 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
PACERS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
21.6%
IND By 8-14 points
27.4%
TOR By 1-7 points
9.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
119
INDIANA
Toronto
108
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Toronto
118
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o225.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u225.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 8, 2026
IND @ TOR
104 - 122
Jan 14, 2026
TOR @ IND
115 - 101
Nov 26, 2025
IND @ TOR
95 - 97
Nov 15, 2025
TOR @ IND
129 - 111
Feb 26, 2025
TOR @ IND
91 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+79.3% more
Toronto: 6.9
vs
Indiana: 3.9
Turnovers (L5)
+12.4% more
Toronto: 14.1
vs
Indiana: 12.6
Steals (L5)
+11.4% more
Toronto: 8.8
vs
Indiana: 7.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
Toronto: 79.6%
vs
Indiana: 76.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
119.0
104
TOR Score
108.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 35.9
37.0 / 36.0
Assists
30.4 / 29.7
29.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.9 / 3.9
8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 48.1
47.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 76.8
70.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
39.7 / 39.4
54.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.8 / 7.9
12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 12.6
13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
IND
TOR
IND
ML
55%
57-47
48%
47-50
55%
48-39
54%
45-38
ATS
61%
62-40-2
59%
57-40
55%
48-39
54%
45-38
TTL
60%
62-42
54%
52-45
100%
87-0
100%
83-0
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