Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Spartans @ Paladins UNCG @ FUR

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

9-15  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sun, Feb 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Timmons Arena
View Odds Details →

FURMAN

PALADINSFUR

16-8  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
PALADINS
100%
SPARTANS --
PALADINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
UNC GREENSBORO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (UNC Greensboro)
SpartansUNCG (-3.5) 0 PaladinsFUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

98.9%

Paladins Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCG -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCG)

UNCG By 1-7 points

4.8%

UNCG By 8-14 points

13.7%

FUR By 1-7 points

0.8%

FUR By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
84
UNC GREENSBORO
61
FURMAN
Simulated Score
68
UNC GREENSBORO
72
FURMAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Paladins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spartans (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Paladins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 UNCG @ FUR 75 - 81
Feb 8, 2026 UNCG @ FUR 67 - 64
Jan 23, 2026 FUR @ UNCG 89 - 66
Feb 15, 2025 UNCG @ FUR 58 - 50
Jan 4, 2025 FUR @ UNCG 67 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +47.5% more
UNC Greensboro: 5.5 vs Furman: 2.9
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
UNC Greensboro: 73.6% vs Furman: 71.5%
Blocks (L5) +146.1% more
Furman: 3.2 vs UNC Greensboro: 1.3
Turnovers (L5) +38.2% more
Furman: 14.5 vs UNC Greensboro: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCG Score 84.0 67
FUR Score 61.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 34.4 26.0 / 53.0
Assists 16.2 / 12.3 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.2 / 1.3 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 43.2 43.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 71.5 / 73.6 76.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 36.8 36.0 / 32.0
Steals 2.9 / 5.5 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 10.5 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
FUR Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
FUR Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
FUR
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FUR
UNCG
FUR
UNCG
ML
71% 25-10
38% 13-21
62% 21-13
71% 24-10
ATS
63% 22-13
44% 15-19
62% 21-13
71% 24-10
TTL
57% 20-15
76% 26-8
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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