Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Nittany Lions USC @ PSU

USC

TROJANSUSC

17-6  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sun, Feb 8 • 12:00 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

10-13  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
0%
TROJANS --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Penn State)
TrojansUSC (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

18.4%

Nittany Lions Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PSU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

USC By 1-7 points

12.2%

USC By 8-14 points

4.0%

PSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

PSU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
65
USC
74
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
70
USC
75
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 8, 2026 USC @ PSU 77 - 75
Feb 11, 2025 PSU @ USC 67 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +10.9% more
Penn State: 5.8 vs USC: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5) +10.2%
Penn State: 83.1% vs USC: 72.9%
Blocks (L5) +61.1% more
USC: 5.4 vs Penn State: 2.1
Turnovers (L5) +33.7% more
USC: 13.6 vs Penn State: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USC Score 65.0 77
PSU Score 74.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.0 / 30.5 33.0 / 32.0
Assists 11.6 / 13.4 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.1 / 5.4 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 47.1 52.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 83.1 / 72.9 60.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 25.4 / 38.1 31.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.8 / 5.2 12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 13.6 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.5
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
USC
PSU
USC
ML
72% 23-9
52% 16-15
56% 18-14
58% 18-13
ATS
72% 23-9
68% 21-10
56% 18-14
58% 18-13
TTL
66% 21-11
68% 21-10
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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