TULSA
GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA
20-3 | Road
74
SOUTH FLORIDA
BULLSUSF
15-8 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
BULLS
100%
GOLDEN HURRICANE
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USF +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)
TLSA By 1-7 points
27.4%
TLSA By 8-14 points
21.6%
USF By 1-7 points
20.1%
USF By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tulsa
66
TULSA
South Florida
62
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Tulsa
68
TULSA
South Florida
72
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Hurricane
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulls (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Bulls (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u171.5
Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim
u171.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 8, 2026
TLSA @ USF
74 - 80
Jan 10, 2026
USF @ TLSA
93 - 78
Jan 18, 2025
TLSA @ USF
56 - 63
Mar 9, 2024
USF @ TLSA
70 - 76
Feb 14, 2024
TLSA @ USF
50 - 69
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Tulsa: 37.0%
vs
South Florida: 33.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.4%
Tulsa: 77.5%
vs
South Florida: 74.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Tulsa: 50.2%
vs
South Florida: 48.3%
Assists (L5)
+47.8% more
South Florida: 19.6
vs
Tulsa: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score
66.0
74
USF Score
62.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 37.0
23.0 / 39.0
Assists
19.6 / 13.3
19.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.0 / 2.1
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 50.2
42.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 77.5
77.0 / 61.0
Rebounding
40.7 / 35.7
36.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.0
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 10.0
7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA
Advantage
30-8-0
(79.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +4.3
USF
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA
Advantage
20-15-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +4.3
USF
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +4.8
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
TLSA
USF
TLSA
ML
61%
20-13
66%
25-13
52%
16-15
64%
23-13
ATS
61%
20-13
74%
28-10
52%
16-15
64%
23-13
TTL
52%
17-16
58%
22-16
100%
31-0
100%
36-0
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