NORTHWESTERN
WILDCATSNU
10-13 | Road
70
IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
17-5 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
HAWKEYES
100%
WILDCATS
--
HAWKEYES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Northwestern)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)
NU By 1-7 points
8.0%
NU By 8-14 points
18.6%
IOWA By 1-7 points
1.7%
IOWA By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern
71
NORTHWESTERN
Iowa
51
IOWA
Simulated Score
Northwestern
73
NORTHWESTERN
Iowa
70
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 8, 2026
NU @ IOWA
70 - 76
Feb 28, 2025
IOWA @ NU
57 - 68
Dec 3, 2024
NU @ IOWA
79 - 80
Mar 2, 2024
IOWA @ NU
87 - 80
Feb 19, 2023
IOWA @ NU
60 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+48.5% more
Northwestern: 3.0
vs
Iowa: 1.6
Rebounding (L5)
+13.9% more
Northwestern: 29.0
vs
Iowa: 25.0
Assists (L5)
+12.4% more
Northwestern: 15.0
vs
Iowa: 13.2
Steals (L5)
+47.3% more
Iowa: 7.4
vs
Northwestern: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NU Score
71.0
70
IOWA Score
51.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.4 / 27.8
31.0 / 57.0
Assists
13.2 / 15.0
12.0 / 10.0
Blocks
1.6 / 3.0
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
53.6 / 39.5
45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 66.3
79.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
25.0 / 29.0
34.0 / 22.0
Steals
7.4 / 5.0
6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
7.9 / 6.5
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
IOWA
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU
16-16-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
IOWA
Advantage
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.0
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
NU
IOWA
NU
ML
59%
22-15
47%
16-18
78%
28-8
68%
23-11
ATS
76%
28-9
50%
17-17
78%
28-8
68%
23-11
TTL
57%
21-16
53%
18-16
100%
36-0
100%
34-0
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