LAMAR
CARDINALSLAM
12-11 | Road
74
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
20-3 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
0%
CARDINALS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SFA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)
LAM By 1-7 points
24.3%
LAM By 8-14 points
13.7%
SFA By 1-7 points
26.2%
SFA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Lamar
93
LAMAR
Stephen F. Austin
94
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
Lamar
68
LAMAR
Stephen F. Austin
75
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lumberjacks (+9)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
LAM @ SFA
74 - 84
Jan 24, 2026
SFA @ LAM
88 - 81
Feb 1, 2025
LAM @ SFA
67 - 62
Jan 11, 2025
SFA @ LAM
72 - 63
Feb 19, 2022
SFA @ LAM
70 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+90.9% more
Stephen F. Austin: 7.5
vs
Lamar: 3.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.9%
Stephen F. Austin: 71.1%
vs
Lamar: 66.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Stephen F. Austin: 40.3%
vs
Lamar: 38.4%
Assists (L5)
+32.5% more
Lamar: 17.8
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAM Score
93.0
74
SFA Score
94.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.3 / 38.4
50.0 / 38.0
Assists
12.0 / 17.8
17.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.4 / 4.6
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 44.6
54.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 66.2
82.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 41.2
27.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.5 / 3.9
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 9.8
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAM
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAM
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LAM
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.1
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
LAM
SFA
LAM
ML
59%
17-12
55%
16-13
79%
23-6
59%
17-12
ATS
59%
17-12
52%
15-14
79%
23-6
60%
18-12
TTL
62%
18-11
72%
21-8
100%
29-0
100%
30-0
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