Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Midshipmen AMER @ NAVY

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

13-11  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 4:00 PM ET
Alumni Hall (Navy)
View Odds Details →

NAVY

MIDSHIPMENNAVY

18-6  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
MIDSHIPMEN
100%
EAGLES --
MIDSHIPMEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (American University)
EaglesAMER (-3.5) 0 MidshipmenNAVY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

99.9%

Midshipmen Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AMER -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AMER)

AMER By 1-7 points

0.8%

AMER By 8-14 points

4.0%

NAVY By 1-7 points

0.1%

NAVY By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
87
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
56
NAVY
Simulated Score
68
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
72
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Midshipmen Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Midshipmen (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o133.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u133.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 AMER @ NAVY 73 - 82
Jan 12, 2026 NAVY @ AMER 51 - 65
Mar 12, 2025 NAVY @ AMER 52 - 74
Feb 26, 2025 NAVY @ AMER 68 - 60
Jan 2, 2025 AMER @ NAVY 58 - 81
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
American University: 31.2% vs Navy: 28.8%
Blocks (L5) +35.8% more
Navy: 3.2 vs American University: 2.3
Assists (L5) +27.1% more
Navy: 18.0 vs American University: 14.2
Steals (L5) +27.1% more
Navy: 8.8 vs American University: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AMER Score 87.0 73
NAVY Score 56.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 31.2 46.0 / 34.0
Assists 18.0 / 14.2 21.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.3 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 52.4 / 40.5 56.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 73.3 / 72.5 69.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 34.1 31.0 / 31.0
Steals 8.8 / 6.9 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 11.2 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMER
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
NAVY Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMER
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
NAVY Advantage
20-11-1 (64.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
AMER
NAVY
AMER
ML
79% 26-7
62% 20-12
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
ATS
73% 24-9
59% 19-13
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
TTL
73% 24-9
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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