Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Trail Blazers MEM @ POR

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

20-30  |  Road

115
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

24-28  |  Home

122
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

34.5%

Trail Blazers Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

MEM By 1-7 points

27.4%

MEM By 8-14 points

21.6%

POR By 1-7 points

20.1%

POR By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
118
MEMPHIS
114
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
105
MEMPHIS
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o230.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 POR @ MEM 122 - 114
Feb 7, 2026 MEM @ POR 115 - 122
Feb 6, 2026 MEM @ POR 115 - 135
Dec 7, 2025 POR @ MEM 96 - 119
Mar 19, 2025 MEM @ POR 99 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +10.2% more
Memphis: 9.1 vs Portland: 8.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Memphis: 37.8% vs Portland: 35.2%
Blocks (L5) +55.6% more
Portland: 5.7 vs Memphis: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +29.4% more
Portland: 18.7 vs Memphis: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 118.0 115
POR Score 114.0 122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 37.8 41.0 / 42.0
Assists 27.0 / 28.9 30.0 / 19.0
Blocks 5.7 / 3.7 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 48.1 48.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 79.6 / 78.1 64.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 47.0 / 41.5 48.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.2 / 9.1 7.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 18.7 / 14.5 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
MEM
POR
MEM
ML
53% 56-49
57% 59-44
55% 49-40
50% 41-41
ATS
62% 65-39-1
63% 65-38
55% 49-40
50% 41-41
TTL
56% 58-46-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 89-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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