DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
19-32 | Road
125
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
35-16 | Home
138
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
SPURS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
DAL By 1-7 points
21.6%
DAL By 8-14 points
10.7%
SA By 1-7 points
27.2%
SA By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
116
DALLAS
San Antonio
119
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Dallas
108
DALLAS
San Antonio
115
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o231.5
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
DAL @ SA
120 - 139
Feb 7, 2026
DAL @ SA
125 - 138
Feb 5, 2026
SA @ DAL
135 - 123
Oct 22, 2025
SA @ DAL
125 - 92
Mar 12, 2025
DAL @ SA
116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+31.2% more
San Antonio: 13.9
vs
Dallas: 10.6
Assists (L5)
+28.6% more
San Antonio: 29.0
vs
Dallas: 22.5
Blocks (L5)
+20.4% more
San Antonio: 7.0
vs
Dallas: 5.8
Steals (L5)
+18.0% more
San Antonio: 7.7
vs
Dallas: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
116.0
125
SA Score
119.0
138
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 34.9
40.0 / 41.0
Assists
29.0 / 22.5
34.0 / 35.0
Blocks
7.0 / 5.8
11.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 45.8
56.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
76.2 / 76.9
70.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
50.2 / 46.1
52.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.7 / 6.5
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 10.6
18.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
DAL
SA
DAL
ML
60%
111-73
62%
63-39
58%
61-44
54%
44-37
ATS
58%
107-76-1
67%
68-34
58%
61-44
54%
44-37
TTL
74%
134-47-3
59%
60-41-1
100%
105-0
100%
81-0
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