Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Wildcats NAU @ WEB

NORTHERN ARIZONA

LUMBERJACKSNAU

9-15  |  Road

53
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 9:00 PM ET
Dee Events Center
View Odds Details →

WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

11-13  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
LUMBERJACKS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
WEBER STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Weber State)
LumberjacksNAU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsWEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

0.0%

Wildcats Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WEB -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WEB)

NAU By 1-7 points

0.0%

NAU By 8-14 points

0.0%

WEB By 1-7 points

0.1%

WEB By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
48
NORTHERN ARIZONA
88
WEBER STATE
Simulated Score
68
NORTHERN ARIZONA
75
WEBER STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 NAU @ WEB 53 - 72
Jan 8, 2026 WEB @ NAU 78 - 65
Feb 3, 2025 NAU @ WEB 73 - 77
Jan 4, 2025 WEB @ NAU 77 - 80
Mar 2, 2024 NAU @ WEB 58 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.7% more
Weber State: 7.4 vs Northern Arizona: 5.1
Rebounding (L5) +30.6% more
Weber State: 30.7 vs Northern Arizona: 23.5
Turnovers (L5) +20.6% more
Weber State: 9.3 vs Northern Arizona: 7.7
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Weber State: 77.5% vs Northern Arizona: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAU Score 48.0 53
WEB Score 88.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 44.5 35.0 / 30.0
Assists 11.8 / 13.7 12.0 / 9.0
Blocks 0.6 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 51.8 48.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 77.5 / 72.4 69.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 30.7 / 23.5 39.0 / 27.0
Steals 7.4 / 5.1 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 7.7 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
WEB Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
WEB Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -2.3
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WEB
NAU
WEB
NAU
ML
73% 22-8
62% 20-12
73% 22-8
81% 26-6
ATS
63% 19-11
62% 20-12
74% 23-8
81% 26-6
TTL
83% 25-5
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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