Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Gaels MSM @ IONA

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

10-15  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Hynes Athletics Center
View Odds Details →

IONA

GAELSIONA

14-10  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
GAELS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
GAELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
IONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Iona)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 GaelsIONA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

24.2%

Gaels Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IONA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IONA)

MSM By 1-7 points

15.3%

MSM By 8-14 points

5.8%

IONA By 1-7 points

26.2%

IONA By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
77
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
84
IONA
Simulated Score
65
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
75
IONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gaels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gaels (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Gaels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 MSM @ IONA 83 - 76
Dec 29, 2025 IONA @ MSM 59 - 66
Mar 15, 2025 MSM @ IONA 63 - 49
Feb 6, 2025 IONA @ MSM 70 - 67
Feb 25, 2024 IONA @ MSM 65 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +76.4% more
Iona: 7.8 vs Mount St. Mary's: 4.4
Blocks (L5) +28.8% more
Iona: 3.0 vs Mount St. Mary's: 2.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Iona: 38.4% vs Mount St. Mary's: 35.8%
Rebounding (L5) +19.5% more
Mount St. Mary's: 39.0 vs Iona: 31.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 77.0 83
IONA Score 84.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.4 / 35.8 27.0 / 39.0
Assists 13.3 / 13.4 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.3 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 43.2 42.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 63.8 / 68.4 71.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 39.0 29.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.8 / 4.4 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 13.9 4.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
IONA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
IONA Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IONA
MSM
IONA
MSM
ML
41% 13-19
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
61% 19-12
ATS
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
62% 20-12
61% 19-12
TTL
66% 21-11
81% 26-6
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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