Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tritons @ Rainbow Warriors UCSD @ HAW

UC SAN DIEGO

TRITONSUCSD

16-8  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 11:59 PM ET
Stan Sheriff Center
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

16-5  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
0%
📊
RAINBOW WARRIORS
100%
TRITONS --
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (UC San Diego)
TritonsUCSD (-3.5) 0 Rainbow WarriorsHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tritons Cover

94.5%

Rainbow Warriors Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSD -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)

UCSD By 1-7 points

13.7%

UCSD By 8-14 points

24.3%

HAW By 1-7 points

4.0%

HAW By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
67
UC SAN DIEGO
51
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
69
UC SAN DIEGO
74
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tritons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tritons (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Rainbow Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 UCSD @ HAW 67 - 72
Jan 3, 2026 HAW @ UCSD 73 - 83
Feb 22, 2025 HAW @ UCSD 44 - 83
Jan 30, 2025 UCSD @ HAW 74 - 63
Feb 8, 2024 UCSD @ HAW 86 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.8% more
UC San Diego: 8.0 vs Hawai'i: 5.8
Free Throw % (L5) +16.3%
Hawai'i: 79.6% vs UC San Diego: 63.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.4%
Hawai'i: 43.0% vs UC San Diego: 32.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Hawai'i: 47.5% vs UC San Diego: 40.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score 67.0 67
HAW Score 51.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.0 / 32.6 19.0 / 27.0
Assists 14.3 / 13.6 10.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.3 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 40.1 43.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 79.6 / 63.3 65.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 36.3 / 39.0 47.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.8 / 8.0 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 14.4 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -6.0
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
UCSD
HAW
UCSD
ML
61% 20-13
56% 19-15
68% 21-10
65% 22-12
ATS
67% 22-11
50% 17-17
68% 21-10
65% 22-12
TTL
61% 20-13
62% 21-13
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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