Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Tommies ORU @ STMN

ORAL ROBERTS

GOLDEN EAGLESORU

5-19  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Lee & Penny Anderson Arena
View Odds Details →

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

19-6  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
TOMMIES
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
TOMMIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (St. Thomas-Minnesota)
Golden EaglesORU (-3.5) 0 TommiesSTMN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

8.1%

Tommies Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STMN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STMN)

ORU By 1-7 points

5.8%

ORU By 8-14 points

1.4%

STMN By 1-7 points

16.9%

STMN By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
54
ORAL ROBERTS
68
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
73
ORAL ROBERTS
78
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tommies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tommies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tommies (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Tommies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 ORU @ STMN 75 - 92
Jan 10, 2026 STMN @ ORU 82 - 71
Feb 22, 2025 STMN @ ORU 66 - 71
Jan 29, 2025 ORU @ STMN 71 - 86
Feb 8, 2024 ORU @ STMN 63 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +72.0% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 6.7 vs Oral Roberts: 3.9
Assists (L5) +57.0% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 17.1 vs Oral Roberts: 10.9
Field Goal % (L5) +11.6%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 50.9% vs Oral Roberts: 39.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.5%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 39.4% vs Oral Roberts: 28.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORU Score 54.0 75
STMN Score 68.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.4 / 28.9 33.0 / 22.0
Assists 17.1 / 10.9 9.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.8 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.9 / 39.3 55.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 68.6 63.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 33.7 35.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.7 / 3.9 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 11.2 4.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORU
10-23-0 (30.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.1
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORU
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.1
STMN Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ORU
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
ORU
STMN
ORU
ML
64% 21-12
85% 28-5
64% 21-12
73% 24-9
ATS
70% 23-10
82% 27-6
64% 21-12
73% 24-9
TTL
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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