Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Foxes @ Stags MRST @ FAIR

MARIST

RED FOXESMRST

16-7  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Leo D. Mahoney Arena
View Odds Details →

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

15-10  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
RED FOXES
100%
📊
STAGS
0%
RED FOXES --
STAGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Fairfield)
Red FoxesMRST (-3.5) 0 StagsFAIR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Foxes Cover

24.2%

Stags Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)

MRST By 1-7 points

15.3%

MRST By 8-14 points

5.8%

FAIR By 1-7 points

26.2%

FAIR By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
61
MARIST
68
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
68
MARIST
72
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stags Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stags Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stags (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Stags (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 MRST @ FAIR 60 - 63
Jan 17, 2026 FAIR @ MRST 67 - 82
Feb 6, 2025 MRST @ FAIR 56 - 59
Jan 12, 2025 FAIR @ MRST 51 - 61
Mar 15, 2024 MRST @ FAIR 61 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +15.0% more
Fairfield: 7.1 vs Marist: 6.2
Rebounding (L5) +14.1% more
Fairfield: 38.1 vs Marist: 33.4
Free Throw % (L5) +22.6%
Marist: 88.3% vs Fairfield: 65.7%
Assists (L5) +11.1% more
Marist: 16.5 vs Fairfield: 14.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRST Score 61.0 60
FAIR Score 68.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.7 / 39.6 25.0 / 32.0
Assists 14.6 / 16.5 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.9 / 4.1 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 50.6 41.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 65.7 / 88.3 77.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 33.4 31.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.1 / 6.2 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 9.9 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRST
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRST Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
FAIR
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -3.0
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
MRST
FAIR
MRST
ML
55% 18-15
55% 17-14
61% 20-13
61% 19-12
ATS
48% 16-17
74% 23-8
61% 20-13
61% 19-12
TTL
48% 16-17
52% 16-15
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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