PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
14-10 | Road
68
WRIGHT STATE
RAIDERSWRST
15-9 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
0%
RAIDERS
100%
MASTODONS
--
RAIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Purdue Fort Wayne)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PFW -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PFW)
PFW By 1-7 points
21.6%
PFW By 8-14 points
27.4%
WRST By 1-7 points
9.3%
WRST By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
88
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Wright State
77
WRIGHT STATE
Simulated Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
72
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Wright State
78
WRIGHT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mastodons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raiders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mastodons (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Raiders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
WRST @ PFW
74 - 70
Feb 7, 2026
PFW @ WRST
68 - 73
Feb 5, 2025
WRST @ PFW
64 - 87
Jan 15, 2025
PFW @ WRST
120 - 113
Feb 28, 2024
PFW @ WRST
79 - 77
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Purdue Fort Wayne: 36.2%
vs
Wright State: 31.4%
Rebounding (L5)
+43.2% more
Wright State: 37.3
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 26.0
Blocks (L5)
+25.2% more
Wright State: 3.8
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 3.1
Turnovers (L5)
+13.5% more
Wright State: 9.5
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PFW Score
88.0
68
WRST Score
77.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.4 / 36.2
30.0 / 35.0
Assists
12.2 / 11.8
16.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.1
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 45.1
49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
74.6 / 75.3
58.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 26.0
39.0 / 24.0
Steals
7.1 / 7.0
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 8.4
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
WRST
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
WRST
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
WRST
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WRST
PFW
WRST
PFW
ML
37%
13-22
59%
19-13
63%
22-13
74%
23-8
ATS
46%
16-19
62%
20-12
63%
22-13
74%
23-8
TTL
63%
22-13
59%
19-13
100%
35-0
100%
31-0
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