MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
15-9 | Road
73
RIDER
BRONCSRID
3-19 | Home
47
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
BRONCS
0%
WARRIORS
--
BRONCS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
RIDER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Rider)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around RID -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RID)
MRMK By 1-7 points
24.3%
MRMK By 8-14 points
13.7%
RID By 1-7 points
26.2%
RID By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Merrimack
64
MERRIMACK
Rider
65
RIDER
Simulated Score
Merrimack
68
MERRIMACK
Rider
72
RIDER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Broncs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Broncs (+8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Broncs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
MRMK @ RID
73 - 47
Dec 4, 2025
RID @ MRMK
66 - 68
Feb 28, 2025
RID @ MRMK
83 - 78
Feb 2, 2025
MRMK @ RID
66 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.8% more
Merrimack: 5.3
vs
Rider: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+43.8% more
Merrimack: 8.9
vs
Rider: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+21.3% more
Merrimack: 13.4
vs
Rider: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.7%
Merrimack: 80.7%
vs
Rider: 66.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score
64.0
73
RID Score
65.0
47
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.6 / 35.7
21.0 / 38.0
Assists
10.6 / 13.4
11.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.3
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 45.0
31.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
66.1 / 80.7
52.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 30.9
25.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.0 / 8.9
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 9.5
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK
Advantage
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RID
MRMK
RID
MRMK
ML
72%
21-8
47%
16-18
66%
19-10
65%
22-12
ATS
72%
21-8
53%
18-16
66%
19-10
65%
22-12
TTL
62%
18-11
62%
21-13
100%
29-0
100%
34-0
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