Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vandals @ Grizzlies IDHO @ MONT

IDAHO

VANDALSIDHO

13-10  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 6:00 PM ET
Dahlberg Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

13-11  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
VANDALS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
IDAHO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Idaho)
VandalsIDHO (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vandals Cover

97.7%

Grizzlies Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDHO -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDHO)

IDHO By 1-7 points

8.0%

IDHO By 8-14 points

18.6%

MONT By 1-7 points

1.7%

MONT By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
81
IDAHO
61
MONTANA
Simulated Score
65
IDAHO
72
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vandals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vandals (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 IDHO @ MONT 77 - 66
Feb 7, 2026 IDHO @ MONT 68 - 73
Jan 8, 2026 MONT @ IDHO 79 - 73
Mar 11, 2025 IDHO @ MONT 55 - 78
Jan 20, 2025 IDHO @ MONT 67 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.2%
Idaho: 81.4% vs Montana: 79.3%
Steals (L5) +54.5% more
Montana: 7.4 vs Idaho: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +37.9% more
Montana: 15.3 vs Idaho: 11.1
Assists (L5) +36.3% more
Montana: 14.3 vs Idaho: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score 81.0 68
MONT Score 61.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 30.6 44.0 / 32.0
Assists 14.3 / 10.5 17.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.7 / 1.5 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 44.8 48.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 79.3 / 81.4 60.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 34.1 38.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.4 / 4.8 9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 11.1 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO Advantage
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
MONT
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
MONT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -1.9
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
IDHO
MONT
IDHO
ML
39% 13-20
56% 20-16
73% 24-9
64% 21-12
ATS
55% 18-15
58% 21-15
73% 24-9
64% 21-12
TTL
59% 19-13-1
69% 25-11
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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