Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Bengals UNCO @ IDST

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

14-10  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 6:00 PM ET
Reed Gym
View Odds Details →

IDAHO STATE

BENGALSIDST

10-14  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
BENGALS
0%
BEARS --
BENGALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-43.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +43.0 points (Idaho State)
BearsUNCO (-3.5) 0 BengalsIDST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

0.0%

Bengals Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IDST -43.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)

UNCO By 1-7 points

0.0%

UNCO By 8-14 points

0.0%

IDST By 1-7 points

0.0%

IDST By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
49
NORTHERN COLORADO
92
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
70
NORTHERN COLORADO
82
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bengals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bengals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bengals (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -43.0
D
Sim Bengals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 UNCO @ IDST 69 - 61
Jan 8, 2026 IDST @ UNCO 72 - 85
Feb 3, 2025 UNCO @ IDST 86 - 72
Jan 4, 2025 IDST @ UNCO 92 - 93
Mar 10, 2024 IDST @ UNCO 83 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +11.0% more
Idaho State: 10.5 vs Northern Colorado: 9.4
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
Idaho State: 74.6% vs Northern Colorado: 72.8%
Assists (L5) +26.5% more
Northern Colorado: 17.4 vs Idaho State: 12.8
Rebounding (L5) +16.8% more
Northern Colorado: 35.7 vs Idaho State: 29.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score 49.0 69
IDST Score 92.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 38.8 32.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.8 / 17.4 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.5 / 4.8 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 50.5 37.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 74.6 / 72.8 69.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 29.7 / 35.7 29.0 / 35.0
Steals 3.9 / 3.7 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 9.4 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
IDST
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
IDST
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
UNCO
IDST
UNCO
ML
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
72% 23-9
66% 21-11
ATS
50% 16-16
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
66% 21-11
TTL
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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