Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Zips @ Trojans AKR @ TROY

AKRON

ZIPSAKR

19-4  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 6:00 PM ET
Trojan Arena
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROJANSTROY

16-8  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
ZIPS
100%
📊
TROJANS
0%
ZIPS --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
182.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Troy)
ZipsAKR (-3.5) 0 TrojansTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Zips Cover

3.6%

Trojans Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TROY -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

AKR By 1-7 points

2.7%

AKR By 8-14 points

0.5%

TROY By 1-7 points

10.7%

TROY By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
82
AKRON
100
TROY
Simulated Score
76
AKRON
72
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Zips Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Zips (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 182.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 AKR @ TROY 69 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +24.5% more
Troy: 7.2 vs Akron: 5.8
Turnovers (L5) +28.4% more
Akron: 12.4 vs Troy: 8.9
Blocks (L5) +16.6% more
Akron: 3.3 vs Troy: 2.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Akron: 33.9% vs Troy: 27.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 82.0 69
TROY Score 100.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.8 / 33.9 52.0 / 27.0
Assists 15.5 / 15.1 18.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.3 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 44.3 43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 75.7 88.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 36.7 35.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.2 / 5.8 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 12.4 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR Advantage
29-6-0 (82.9%)
Margin: 13.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
TROY
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 13.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
TROY Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
15-17-1
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +0.2
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
AKR
TROY
AKR
ML
59% 20-14
71% 24-10
61% 20-13
65% 22-12
ATS
65% 22-12
76% 26-8
61% 20-13
65% 22-12
TTL
56% 19-15
59% 20-14
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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