Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Wolf Pack FRES @ NEV

FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

11-11  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 10:00 PM ET
Lawlor Events Center
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

16-7  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
WOLF PACK
0%
BULLDOGS --
WOLF PACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
182.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Nevada)
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 Wolf PackNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

3.6%

Wolf Pack Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEV -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

FRES By 1-7 points

2.7%

FRES By 8-14 points

0.5%

NEV By 1-7 points

10.7%

NEV By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
82
FRESNO STATE
100
NEVADA
Simulated Score
68
FRESNO STATE
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wolf Pack Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolf Pack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolf Pack (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Wolf Pack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 182.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 FRES @ NEV 59 - 69
Jan 3, 2026 NEV @ FRES 66 - 65
Mar 12, 2025 FRES @ NEV 71 - 86
Feb 10, 2025 FRES @ NEV 69 - 94
Jan 11, 2025 NEV @ FRES 77 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.2% more
Nevada: 2.9 vs Fresno State: 2.0
Assists (L5) +25.7% more
Nevada: 15.0 vs Fresno State: 11.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Nevada: 45.2% vs Fresno State: 39.1%
Turnovers (L5) +35.5% more
Fresno State: 13.4 vs Nevada: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 82.0 59
NEV Score 100.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 45.2 / 39.1 25.0 / 31.0
Assists 15.0 / 11.9 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.0 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 46.6 39.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 72.9 / 74.6 76.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 31.8 43.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.7 / 6.8 7.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 13.4 7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
NEV Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
NEV
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
FRES
NEV
FRES
ML
62% 23-14
59% 19-13
73% 27-10
74% 23-8
ATS
73% 27-10
75% 24-8
73% 27-10
74% 23-8
TTL
49% 18-19
56% 18-14
100% 37-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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