NEW MEXICO STATE
AGGIESNMSU
11-11 | Road
88
UTEP
MINERSUTEP
8-15 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
MINERS
0%
AGGIES
--
MINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
UTEP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (UTEP)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTEP -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)
NMSU By 1-7 points
5.8%
NMSU By 8-14 points
1.4%
UTEP By 1-7 points
16.9%
UTEP By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New Mexico State
55
NEW MEXICO STATE
UTEP
69
UTEP
Simulated Score
New Mexico State
68
NEW MEXICO STATE
UTEP
72
UTEP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Miners
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Miners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Miners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Miners (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UTEP @ NMSU
63 - 67
Feb 7, 2026
NMSU @ UTEP
88 - 91
Feb 8, 2025
UTEP @ NMSU
66 - 63
Jan 11, 2025
NMSU @ UTEP
85 - 57
Feb 10, 2024
NMSU @ UTEP
49 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.9%
UTEP: 75.0%
vs
New Mexico State: 72.1%
Turnovers (L5)
+23.4% more
New Mexico State: 11.0
vs
UTEP: 8.4
Assists (L5)
+12.7% more
New Mexico State: 12.6
vs
UTEP: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score
55.0
88
UTEP Score
69.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 31.9
34.0 / 42.0
Assists
11.0 / 12.6
14.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.6 / 2.7
8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.8 / 40.6
39.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
75.0 / 72.1
68.0 / 61.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 34.6
49.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.9
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.4 / 11.0
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
UTEP
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
UTEP
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3%
Total +/-: +3.2
UTEP
12-15-1
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
NMSU
UTEP
NMSU
ML
70%
21-9
61%
19-12
72%
21-8
67%
20-10
ATS
57%
17-13
65%
20-11
73%
22-8
67%
20-10
TTL
60%
18-12
45%
14-17
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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