HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
31-19 | Road
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
40-12 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
THUNDER
100%
ROCKETS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
HOU By 1-7 points
26.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
16.9%
OKC By 1-7 points
24.3%
OKC By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
107
HOUSTON
Oklahoma City
106
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Houston
109
HOUSTON
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u213.0
Loss
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Sim
u213.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
HOU @ OKC
112 - 106
Jan 15, 2026
OKC @ HOU
111 - 91
Oct 21, 2025
HOU @ OKC
124 - 125
Apr 4, 2025
OKC @ HOU
111 - 125
Mar 3, 2025
HOU @ OKC
128 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+15.1% more
Houston: 11.8
vs
Oklahoma City: 10.0
Assists (L5)
+17.3% more
Oklahoma City: 26.7
vs
Houston: 22.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.4%
Oklahoma City: 85.3%
vs
Houston: 72.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Oklahoma City: 45.7%
vs
Houston: 44.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
107.0
112
OKC Score
106.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.8 / 35.5
39.0 / 35.0
Assists
26.7 / 22.8
25.0 / 25.0
Blocks
6.0 / 6.0
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 44.0
45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
85.3 / 72.9
64.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
45.0 / 45.5
42.0 / 41.0
Steals
10.0 / 11.8
10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 14.0
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC
Advantage
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
HOU
OKC
HOU
ML
70%
80-34
61%
69-44
48%
46-49
59%
51-35
ATS
73%
83-30-1
62%
70-43
48%
46-49
59%
51-35
TTL
67%
76-38
51%
58-55
100%
95-0
100%
86-0
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