CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
24-28 | Road
126
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
26-27 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
HAWKS
100%
HORNETS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
CHA By 1-7 points
26.8%
CHA By 8-14 points
18.6%
ATL By 1-7 points
23.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
119
CHARLOTTE
Atlanta
117
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Charlotte
118
CHARLOTTE
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (-2)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Hornets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o234.0
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim
u234.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
ATL @ CHA
107 - 110
Feb 7, 2026
CHA @ ATL
126 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
126 - 133
Nov 23, 2025
CHA @ ATL
110 - 113
Mar 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
134 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+40.0% more
Charlotte: 17.7
vs
Atlanta: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.7%
Charlotte: 87.0%
vs
Atlanta: 73.3%
Steals (L5)
+12.9% more
Charlotte: 7.8
vs
Atlanta: 6.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Charlotte: 36.7%
vs
Atlanta: 34.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
119.0
126
ATL Score
117.0
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 36.7
49.0 / 46.0
Assists
30.6 / 23.3
30.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.5
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 43.7
49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 87.0
88.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
45.9 / 49.8
30.0 / 49.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.8
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 17.7
10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CHA
ATL
CHA
ML
50%
52-52
61%
60-39
55%
48-40
48%
40-44
ATS
53%
55-48-1
60%
59-40
55%
48-40
48%
40-44
TTL
53%
55-48-1
58%
57-42
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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