CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
9-15 | Road
58
UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
14-9 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
AGGIES
0%
MUSTANGS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (UC Davis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCD -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)
CP By 1-7 points
0.0%
CP By 8-14 points
0.0%
UCD By 1-7 points
0.5%
UCD By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
56
CAL POLY
UC Davis
89
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
70
CAL POLY
UC Davis
75
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u169.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u169.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
CP @ UCD
58 - 67
Jan 10, 2026
UCD @ CP
78 - 84
Mar 12, 2025
CP @ UCD
86 - 76
Jan 16, 2025
UCD @ CP
65 - 54
Dec 5, 2024
CP @ UCD
66 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+52.3% more
UC Davis: 3.0
vs
Cal Poly: 2.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
UC Davis: 43.1%
vs
Cal Poly: 36.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+26.6% more
Cal Poly: 15.3
vs
UC Davis: 11.2
Steals (L5)
+14.3% more
Cal Poly: 8.4
vs
UC Davis: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
56.0
58
UCD Score
89.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.1 / 36.0
28.0 / 25.0
Assists
16.1 / 17.2
11.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.0 / 2.0
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 49.9
36.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
77.6 / 85.4
88.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
31.6 / 32.9
41.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.4
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 15.3
15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
CP
UCD
CP
ML
58%
19-14
58%
19-14
64%
21-12
58%
19-14
ATS
61%
20-13
64%
21-12
64%
21-12
58%
19-14
TTL
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
Texas A&M's Blowout Loss to LSU: Five Critical Takeaways
Texas A&M vs. LSU: Aggies' Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance as …
Bucky McMillan's Roster Overhaul: Texas A&M Basketball Eyes Tour…