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SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

14-11  |  Road

54
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 11:30 PM ET
University Credit Union Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

20-4  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
DONS
0%
📊
GAELS
100%
DONS --
GAELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-59.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +59.0 points (San Francisco)
DonsSF (-3.5) 0 GaelsSMC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dons Cover

100.0%

Gaels Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SF -59.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-7 points

0.0%

SF By 8-14 points

0.0%

SMC By 1-7 points

0.0%

SMC By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
105
SAN FRANCISCO
46
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
65
SAN FRANCISCO
72
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dons (-11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -59.0
D
Sim Gaels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 SF @ SMC 54 - 79
Jan 13, 2026 SMC @ SF 82 - 68
Feb 6, 2025 SMC @ SF 64 - 65
Jan 23, 2025 SF @ SMC 51 - 71
Feb 20, 2024 SF @ SMC 66 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.3% more
Saint Mary's: 6.4 vs San Francisco: 4.9
Assists (L5) +27.6% more
Saint Mary's: 15.4 vs San Francisco: 12.0
Rebounding (L5) +10.8% more
Saint Mary's: 38.7 vs San Francisco: 34.9
Free Throw % (L5) +9.3%
Saint Mary's: 83.5% vs San Francisco: 74.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 105.0 54
SMC Score 46.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.9 / 35.7 45.0 / 23.0
Assists 15.4 / 12.0 24.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.4 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 41.5 48.0 / 28.0
Free Throw % 83.5 / 74.2 75.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 34.9 47.0 / 29.0
Steals 6.4 / 4.9 4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 10.0 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
SMC Advantage
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
SF
SMC
SF
ML
56% 18-14
39% 13-20
82% 23-5
64% 21-12
ATS
62% 20-12
42% 14-19
83% 24-5
64% 21-12
TTL
53% 17-15
73% 24-9
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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