Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Fighting Hawks DEN @ UND

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

11-14  |  Road

98
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

14-12  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
0%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
PIONEERS --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Denver)
PioneersDEN (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

91.9%

Fighting Hawks Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

16.9%

DEN By 8-14 points

26.2%

UND By 1-7 points

5.8%

UND By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
91
DENVER
77
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
72
DENVER
75
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pioneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pioneers (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o161.5 Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 DEN @ UND 67 - 83
Feb 7, 2026 DEN @ UND 98 - 79
Jan 24, 2026 UND @ DEN 93 - 86
Feb 13, 2025 DEN @ UND 68 - 64
Jan 9, 2025 UND @ DEN 95 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.2% more
Denver: 9.0 vs North Dakota: 6.5
Free Throw % (L5) +9.2%
Denver: 78.4% vs North Dakota: 69.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Denver: 47.0% vs North Dakota: 45.0%
Blocks (L5) +56.5% more
North Dakota: 3.1 vs Denver: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 91.0 98
UND Score 77.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 34.3 14.0 / 36.0
Assists 11.3 / 10.1 6.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.0 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 47.0 43.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 69.1 / 78.4 86.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 36.2 25.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.8 / 4.8 5.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 6.5 / 9.0 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
UND Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
DEN
UND
DEN
ML
44% 15-19
56% 18-14
50% 17-17
59% 19-13
ATS
50% 17-17
66% 21-11
50% 17-17
59% 19-13
TTL
65% 22-12
59% 19-13
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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