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SOUTHERN INDIANA

SCREAMING EAGLESUSI

5-18  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 4:45 PM ET
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SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

REDHAWKSSEMO

14-10  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
SCREAMING EAGLES
100%
📊
REDHAWKS
0%
SCREAMING EAGLES --
REDHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-60.0
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +60.0 points (Southeast Missouri State)
Screaming EaglesUSI (-3.5) 0 RedhawksSEMO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Screaming Eagles Cover

0.0%

Redhawks Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SEMO -60.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEMO)

USI By 1-7 points

0.0%

USI By 8-14 points

0.0%

SEMO By 1-7 points

0.0%

SEMO By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
49
SOUTHERN INDIANA
109
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
70
SOUTHERN INDIANA
78
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Redhawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redhawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Redhawks (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -60.0
D
Sim Redhawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 USI @ SEMO 65 - 90
Jan 8, 2026 SEMO @ USI 84 - 76
Feb 8, 2025 SEMO @ USI 79 - 74
Jan 9, 2025 USI @ SEMO 66 - 77
Mar 2, 2024 SEMO @ USI 70 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +62.0% more
Southeast Missouri State: 14.4 vs Southern Indiana: 8.9
Field Goal % (L5) +17.0%
Southeast Missouri State: 48.8% vs Southern Indiana: 31.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
Southeast Missouri State: 37.7% vs Southern Indiana: 28.3%
Rebounding (L5) +15.4% more
Southern Indiana: 37.5 vs Southeast Missouri State: 31.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USI Score 49.0 65
SEMO Score 109.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 28.3 17.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.4 / 8.9 7.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.6 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 31.9 54.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 68.2 / 69.5 88.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 31.8 / 37.5 38.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.4 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 13.5 6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
99%MONEY1%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USI
7-23-0 (23.3%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
SEMO Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USI
11-16-1 (40.7%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
SEMO Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USI
11-17-0
O: 39.3% / U: 60.7% Total +/-: -3.3
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
USI
SEMO
USI
ML
64% 21-12
67% 20-10
50% 15-15
61% 17-11
ATS
67% 22-11
70% 21-9
50% 15-15
61% 17-11
TTL
58% 19-14
73% 22-8
100% 30-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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