Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Wolverines UTA @ UVU

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

14-8  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 4:00 PM ET
UCCU Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH VALLEY

WOLVERINESUVU

17-6  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
WOLVERINES
100%
MAVERICKS --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (UT Arlington)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 WolverinesUVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

100.0%

Wolverines Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTA -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

UTA By 1-7 points

0.2%

UTA By 8-14 points

1.4%

UVU By 1-7 points

0.0%

UVU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
78
UT ARLINGTON
42
UTAH VALLEY
Simulated Score
70
UT ARLINGTON
78
UTAH VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UTA @ UVU 65 - 67
Feb 21, 2026 UVU @ UTA 66 - 54
Feb 7, 2026 UTA @ UVU 60 - 81
Jan 17, 2026 UTA @ UVU 74 - 86
Feb 6, 2025 UTA @ UVU 73 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +11.9% more
UT Arlington: 40.3 vs Utah Valley: 35.5
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
UT Arlington: 72.5% vs Utah Valley: 68.8%
Blocks (L5) +65.5% more
Utah Valley: 6.2 vs UT Arlington: 3.7
Steals (L5) +54.7% more
Utah Valley: 11.0 vs UT Arlington: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 78.0 60
UVU Score 42.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 29.1 48.0 / 11.0
Assists 17.5 / 14.0 19.0 / 10.0
Blocks 6.2 / 3.7 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 42.4 52.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 72.5 91.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 40.3 24.0 / 22.0
Steals 11.0 / 7.1 13.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.9 / 11.6 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
UVU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
UVU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVU
UTA
UVU
UTA
ML
56% 18-14
50% 16-16
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
ATS
53% 17-15
59% 19-13
74% 25-9
62% 20-12
TTL
44% 14-18
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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