UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
8-16 | Road
74
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
14-10 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
0%
MATADORS
100%
HIGHLANDERS
--
MATADORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UC RIVERSIDE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (UC Riverside)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCR -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCR)
UCR By 1-7 points
15.3%
UCR By 8-14 points
25.3%
CSUN By 1-7 points
4.8%
CSUN By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Riverside
92
UC RIVERSIDE
Cal State Northridge
77
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
UC Riverside
65
UC RIVERSIDE
Cal State Northridge
75
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Highlanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Matadors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Highlanders (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Matadors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o160.5
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
CSUN @ UCR
84 - 95
Feb 7, 2026
UCR @ CSUN
74 - 88
Mar 6, 2025
CSUN @ UCR
79 - 94
Dec 5, 2024
UCR @ CSUN
68 - 64
Feb 3, 2024
UCR @ CSUN
70 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+47.3% more
UC Riverside: 4.6
vs
Cal State Northridge: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+68.8% more
Cal State Northridge: 21.4
vs
UC Riverside: 12.7
Steals (L5)
+21.7% more
Cal State Northridge: 6.9
vs
UC Riverside: 5.6
Rebounding (L5)
+14.2% more
Cal State Northridge: 41.7
vs
UC Riverside: 36.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCR Score
92.0
74
CSUN Score
77.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 31.0
62.0 / 26.0
Assists
21.4 / 12.7
23.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.4 / 4.6
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 42.3
58.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
65.5 / 64.7
45.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
41.7 / 36.5
37.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.9 / 5.6
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 12.9
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CSUN
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
Advantage
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
UCR
CSUN
UCR
ML
58%
19-14
66%
21-11
67%
22-11
75%
24-8
ATS
58%
19-14
59%
19-13
67%
22-11
75%
24-8
TTL
58%
19-14
66%
21-11
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
