Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rockets @ Dukes TOL @ JMU

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

12-11  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 4:00 PM ET
Atlantic Union Bank Center
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

11-13  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
ROCKETS --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
185.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (James Madison)
RocketsTOL (-3.5) 0 DukesJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

30.9%

Dukes Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JMU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

TOL By 1-7 points

18.6%

TOL By 8-14 points

8.0%

JMU By 1-7 points

27.2%

JMU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
90
TOLEDO
95
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
77
TOLEDO
82
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 185.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 TOL @ JMU 71 - 73
Feb 8, 2025 JMU @ TOL 69 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +8.2% more
James Madison: 35.8 vs Toledo: 33.1
Steals (L5) +46.0% more
Toledo: 8.4 vs James Madison: 4.5
Free Throw % (L5) +24.1%
Toledo: 81.8% vs James Madison: 57.8%
Assists (L5) +23.6% more
Toledo: 15.4 vs James Madison: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 90.0 71
JMU Score 95.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 36.0 30.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.7 / 15.4 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.8 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 47.3 44.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 57.8 / 81.8 88.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 33.1 38.0 / 27.0
Steals 4.5 / 8.4 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 11.8 14.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
JMU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
TOL
JMU
TOL
ML
64% 21-12
48% 16-17
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
ATS
67% 22-11
48% 16-17
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
TTL
67% 22-11
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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