BUFFALO
BULLSBUF
14-9 | Road
69
SOUTH ALABAMA
JAGUARSUSA
16-7 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
JAGUARS
100%
BULLS
--
JAGUARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BUF -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1-7 points
1.7%
BUF By 8-14 points
6.8%
USA By 1-7 points
0.2%
USA By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
79
BUFFALO
South Alabama
51
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
Buffalo
70
BUFFALO
South Alabama
75
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jaguars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulls (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Jaguars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
BUF @ USA
69 - 81
Nov 11, 2023
USA @ BUF
70 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+57.3% more
Buffalo: 12.7
vs
South Alabama: 5.4
Blocks (L5)
+43.5% more
Buffalo: 2.1
vs
South Alabama: 1.2
Assists (L5)
+23.1% more
Buffalo: 15.6
vs
South Alabama: 12.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.6%
Buffalo: 72.6%
vs
South Alabama: 61.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
79.0
69
USA Score
51.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 38.7
48.0 / 37.0
Assists
12.0 / 15.6
14.0 / 17.0
Blocks
1.2 / 2.1
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.0 / 48.5
53.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
61.0 / 72.6
63.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 32.7
36.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.4 / 5.9
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
5.4 / 12.7
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
USA
Advantage
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
USA
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
BUF
USA
BUF
ML
47%
15-17
45%
14-17
57%
17-13
45%
14-17
ATS
53%
17-15
55%
17-14
57%
17-13
45%
14-17
TTL
66%
21-11
48%
15-16
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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