Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Warhawks BALL @ ULM

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

7-15  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 3:00 PM ET
Fant-Ewing Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UL MONROE

WARHAWKSULM

4-20  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
WARHAWKS
100%
CARDINALS --
WARHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
108.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Ball State)
CardinalsBALL (-3.5) 0 WarhawksULM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

78.8%

Warhawks Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BALL -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

BALL By 1-7 points

25.3%

BALL By 8-14 points

26.2%

ULM By 1-7 points

13.7%

ULM By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
58
BALL STATE
50
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
75
BALL STATE
68
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Cardinals (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 108.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 BALL @ ULM 73 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +20.2% more
Ball State: 7.1 vs UL Monroe: 5.6
Rebounding (L5) +34.6% more
UL Monroe: 37.3 vs Ball State: 27.7
Assists (L5) +22.0% more
UL Monroe: 10.7 vs Ball State: 8.8
Turnovers (L5) +16.8% more
UL Monroe: 11.8 vs Ball State: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 58.0 73
ULM Score 50.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.0 / 24.5 11.0 / 31.0
Assists 10.7 / 8.8 7.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.9 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 39.2 38.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 63.0 83.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 27.7 33.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.6 / 7.1 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 10.1 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL Advantage
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
ULM
4-28-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
ULM Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
BALL
ULM
BALL
ML
50% 16-16
43% 13-17
70% 21-9
62% 18-11
ATS
78% 25-7
67% 20-10
70% 21-9
62% 18-11
TTL
59% 19-13
50% 15-15
100% 30-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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