NORTH TEXAS
MEAN GREENUNT
12-11 | Road
81
UTSA
ROADRUNNERSUTSA
4-18 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
MEAN GREEN
0%
ROADRUNNERS
100%
MEAN GREEN
--
ROADRUNNERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTSA +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)
UNT By 1-7 points
27.4%
UNT By 8-14 points
21.6%
UTSA By 1-7 points
20.1%
UTSA By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
North Texas
68
NORTH TEXAS
UTSA
64
UTSA
Simulated Score
North Texas
68
NORTH TEXAS
UTSA
71
UTSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mean Green
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Roadrunners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Roadrunners (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Roadrunners (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
UNT @ UTSA
81 - 58
Jan 21, 2026
UTSA @ UNT
62 - 81
Feb 1, 2025
UTSA @ UNT
54 - 50
Jan 18, 2025
UNT @ UTSA
72 - 57
Feb 24, 2024
UTSA @ UNT
64 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+62.7% more
North Texas: 11.4
vs
UTSA: 4.2
Rebounding (L5)
+13.0% more
North Texas: 36.7
vs
UTSA: 31.9
Assists (L5)
+12.0% more
North Texas: 10.8
vs
UTSA: 9.5
Blocks (L5)
+22.4% more
UTSA: 5.3
vs
North Texas: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNT Score
68.0
81
UTSA Score
64.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 21.6
13.0 / 22.0
Assists
9.5 / 10.8
9.0 / 19.0
Blocks
5.3 / 4.3
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 40.6
42.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
73.8 / 68.4
67.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 36.7
28.0 / 45.0
Steals
4.2 / 11.4
9.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 10.1
18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
UTSA
5-25-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
UTSA
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
UNT
UTSA
UNT
ML
83%
24-5
70%
23-10
48%
14-15
59%
19-13
ATS
72%
21-8
52%
17-16
50%
15-15
59%
19-13
TTL
66%
19-10
67%
22-11
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
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