Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sun Devils @ Buffaloes ASU @ COLO

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

12-11  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 9:30 PM ET
CU Events Center
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

BUFFALOESCOLO

13-10  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
100%
📊
BUFFALOES
0%
SUN DEVILS --
BUFFALOES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Colorado)
Sun DevilsASU (-3.5) 0 BuffaloesCOLO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sun Devils Cover

11.5%

Buffaloes Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COLO -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)

ASU By 1-7 points

8.0%

ASU By 8-14 points

2.2%

COLO By 1-7 points

20.1%

COLO By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
57
ARIZONA STATE
69
COLORADO
Simulated Score
68
ARIZONA STATE
76
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buffaloes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Buffaloes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 ASU @ COLO 70 - 78
Jan 3, 2026 COLO @ ASU 95 - 89
Jan 28, 2025 ASU @ COLO 70 - 68
Jan 4, 2025 COLO @ ASU 61 - 81
Feb 8, 2024 ASU @ COLO 70 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.0% more
Colorado: 15.3 vs Arizona State: 13.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
Colorado: 40.0% vs Arizona State: 33.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Colorado: 45.3% vs Arizona State: 42.9%
Blocks (L5) +70.9% more
Arizona State: 4.9 vs Colorado: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 57.0 70
COLO Score 69.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.0 / 33.0 27.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.3 / 13.4 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.4 / 4.9 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 42.9 51.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 73.8 71.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 32.7 40.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.2 / 7.1 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 9.9 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
COLO
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
ASU
COLO
ASU
ML
61% 20-13
52% 17-16
69% 22-10
68% 21-10
ATS
73% 24-9
52% 17-16
69% 22-10
68% 21-10
TTL
45% 15-18
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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