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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

6-16  |  Road

57
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 9:00 PM ET
Moby Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

12-10  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
SPARTANS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado State)
SpartansSJSU (-3.5) 0 RamsCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

46.0%

Rams Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

SJSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

SJSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

CSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

CSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
62
SAN JOSÉ STATE
63
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
65
SAN JOSÉ STATE
78
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 CSU @ SJSU 85 - 73
Feb 7, 2026 SJSU @ CSU 57 - 65
Mar 4, 2025 SJSU @ CSU 56 - 83
Dec 31, 2024 CSU @ SJSU 72 - 50
Mar 13, 2024 SJSU @ CSU 62 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +54.3% more
Colorado State: 13.1 vs San José State: 8.5
Blocks (L5) +46.0% more
Colorado State: 1.4 vs San José State: 0.9
Steals (L5) +45.2% more
Colorado State: 5.5 vs San José State: 3.8
Assists (L5) +28.2% more
Colorado State: 13.3 vs San José State: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 62.0 57
CSU Score 63.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 35.1 22.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.3 / 10.4 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.4 / 0.9 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 40.9 38.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 69.5 75.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 29.8 / 26.4 48.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.5 / 3.8 2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 8.5 10.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
CSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
CSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
SJSU
CSU
SJSU
ML
56% 19-15
73% 24-9
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
ATS
62% 21-13
73% 24-9
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
TTL
56% 19-15
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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